Wednesday, September 28, 2011

session 7

Brief Overview/Summary

Prof mentioned in class this quote, that “when we are able to grow the resources we need, we will finally be on the road to sustainability”. Is this true? Well, currently, if everyone on this globe lives and consumes like an American, we will need 3-5 earths to fulfill the wants of 6.5 billion people. This is because of the finite resources such as oil and iron ore. However, if we are able to synthesize oil or create iron ores in the lab, there will no longer be a constraint of resources in the world. Sustainability is defined as the ability to consume resources at a particular rate such that future generations will too be able to enjoy the same resources at the same rate, if not more, than current levels. When we are able to grow our own resources, we may well be on our way to sustainable living, but we will have to consider the amount of waste products that will be generated as we grow more and more resources.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

We discussed about the urbanization rates in Latin America is higher than that in Europe, with a 76% urbanization rate as compared to 74% in Europe. The trend in the future will be higher urbanization rates in all continents and nations, as more people give up agricultural lifestyles and move to the cities to look for jobs. Bangladesh, with one of the highest population density in the world, is overcrowded in the rural areas. For example, each family has only 0.2 acres of land to grow crops, which is approximately the size of 2 seminar rooms, which is then used to support a large family. With passing generations, less and less land is available for each family as the land is repeatedly divided among the males in the family. This practice is clearly unsustainable because with the same quantity of land and a rapidly growing population, unless yields increase as fast as population growth, there will be insufficient food for Bangladeshis.

Also, biotechnology consists of only $100bn, or a miniscule percentage of the world economy, but governments around the world are beginning to have interest in the field and are developing cluster industries and supporting research in this field.

Key Takeaways

Will the use of biofuels contribute to a sustainable future? The class had a lively discussion on whether priority should be given to food production or fuel production, though the whole class was unanimous in deciding that food security should indeed supersede energy needs. My personal take on this issue is based on two fundamental reasons. Firstly, the production of biofuels is itself energy intensive. For example, the carbon savings for using biofuels is negligible in the case of using corn ethanol. With negligible savings, it is irrational to continue diverting food supplies to the manufacturing of biofuels at the expense of food security. Secondly, with food supplies used for biofuels, there is a lower supply of food ready for consumption. This was one of the reasons for the phenomenon of fast-rising prices of cereal crops such as wheat and corn. Henceforth, the arguments supporting the continued use of biofuels cannot be valid in the face of continued hunger in many parts of the world.

Issues for Further Discussion

In class, Prof mentioned about the fact that approximately 1billion acres of dormant arable land can be put into use for biofuel harvests/ feed livestock/ growing more crops. This unlocks many possibilities, since we can continue to increase total yield of crops without sacrificing any existing structures or resources. Moreover, by developing such land that is not utilized for purposes such as biofuel development, there can be more biofuels extracted without hurting food security since all the biofuels that will be extracted will not be from current food crops.

Ratings
Overall, I will rate the lesson a 9/10 because of the lively discussion on agriculture and biofuels.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

6th lesson

Brief Overview/Summary
We discussed about biobusiness and have 3 presenters introducing topics such as the use of technology in athletics and the accompanying ethical issues, the use of cloning as well as the development of electronic skin. For the sixth lesson, we started off by watching a video by Microsoft regarding the integration of smart systems in the healthcare sector.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

One thing that caught my attention was the multi-purpose card shown in the first video, with 1 smart card taking the functions of credit cards, health cares, ID cards, which the user can select before usage. With 1 card doing every single function, there will no longer be a need for so many card holders in our wallets. Now isn’t that a great invention! Moreover, doctors will be able to video communicate with patients from their homes, and patients can log in data of their exercise progress and check their health status on their own, with computers calculating all the data and churning out simple and comprehensive graphs. Also envisioned in the future is a highly intelligent healthcare system that can alert patients to timings to consume their daily doses of medicine, as well as one that can identify different medicines.

Key Takeaways

Prof continued to talk about biobusiness proper, and how in reality, there is a time lag before biobusiness can impact mankind. Loosely defined, biobusiness is about using plant animal and cellular materials to generate new products. Such a time lag comes about because from innovation to testing to passing through regulations, each stage requires a period of around 5-10 years. First off, the innovation and research into new technology. Next up, the rigorous testing of the technology to make sure it is indeed safe for human usage and that there are few or no side effects. And lastly, the technology has to be patented and go through regulation to make sure that the technology cannot be used for illegal means.

We then discussed about the trend of deaths caused by chronic and communicable diseases. The per capita of a certain region is actually inversely proportional to the proportion of people dying from communicable diseases instead of chronic diseases. I believe that diseases of deprivation, e.g. TB, are likely to become less significant over time as countries get richer.

Issues for Further Discussion

From the discussion of Reading 4, Prof said that in Singapore, the pharmacy and clinic run together as a single operation i.e. doctors run their own pharmacies. I truly think that this is a great system. I had been to India, and during the trip, I was unfortunate enough to fall sick and had to receive medical attention. That was the first country that I have received medical attention where the clinic and pharmacy were in different locations, and I was not pleased at all. I was used to the convenience of receiving my medicine immediately after my visit to the doctor. Moreover, the pharmacy was a few streets away from the clinic. A sick person would not appreciate having to walk even further for his medicine, because a sick person needs rest, not more exercise! Thankfully, we have this system in Singapore, though as Prof mentioned, there is still some way to go before the healthcare systems in Singapore are integrated with one another into one single smart and cohesive system.

From reading 6, I found out that there are already innovative financing mechanisms that increase the stability and predictability of financing, which allows health policymakers to engage in long-term planning. Examples include the International Finance Facility for Immunization, which uses the bond markets to raise capital for children’s vaccines. I think this is an absolutely wonderful idea, using financial markets to raise funds for social good. There are people who are interested in investing and growing their money while at the same time doing good, and these bonds allow them to do just that. Although the returns are lower than those for corporate or treasury bonds, the investor will not mind smaller gains if the money is used for the purpose of doing good.

Ratings

Overall, I will rate the lesson a 8.9/10 because of the lively discussion on issues that I really have an interest in, that is, ways to alleviate poverty. The 3 presenters were very enthusiastic about their topics, which led to a robust discussion on their relevant topics.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Lesson 5

Twc session 5

Brief Overview/Summary

Session 5 is about ICT and how we can use ICTs to change the world, be it in achieving Millennium Development Goals like eradicating poverty and achieving 100% primary education among children or the way forward from today, as we foray into new ways of computing such as cloud computing. It is a truly engaging class with 3 presentations and 6 readings, including a video of Project Natal.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

To start off the lesson, Prof showed us the video of Project Natal. It was about virtual reality and artificial intelligence brought to a whole different level. Milo, the boy in the program, was actually able to interact with the user in a way that was both intuitive, unscripted and very human. With such a high intelligence and being so human-like, it gives us a new avenue to explore the many different uses that these A.I. can bring. For example, they can be companions for the lonely who seek company or simply someone to talk to. These avatars are able to accompany people 24/7, 365 days a year and give mental support to people who feel neglected and outcast by society in general. This technology shows, as Prof mentioned, that we tend to humanize things and create avatars that are extensions of ourselves. E.g. when we use a racquet during games, it is actually an extension of ourselves.

Key Takeaways

We watched another video on web 3.0. While everyone knows what Web 2.0 is about, i.e. uploading information and broadcasting the individual’s views throughout the entire globe via websites such as Facebook and Youtube, and focused on interactions between users, 3.0 is actually focused on developing a smart network that remembers users’ preferences and choices. Prominent examples include last.fm and Amazon and Google. These websites are able to give users search results based on past searches as well as the books that were bought by the user. Google also reads the mails of all users to provide better and more relevant advertisements in Gmail. This heralds in the age of the omnipresent Internet. It learns the preferences of the users and provides users possibilities that they may choose, based on past history and activities. Data from different sources can be linked and made available everywhere. Online websites becomes our personal assistant. They can use information from LinkedIn, Facebook etc. to plan our timetable and our to-do lists. For example, if we key in our decision to fly to KL tomorrow, decisions and options will be provided by the net, whether it is the choice of airlines, which restaurants to eat or even which hotels we can stay in. A possible benefit will be that users will be able to sift through all unwanted and irrelevant information very easily by relying on the cloud systems, yet a possible disadvantage is that privacy may be at stake here, since companies will have so much information on consumers that can be hacked away or even sold to other organizations for a fee. In the age of ICT, it is inevitable that privacy of individuals continue to be chipped away bit by bit from ever-improving technology.

Issues for Further Discussion

As seen in reading 3, the paper aimed to achieve MDGs through ICT, but as I argued in class, it is not feasible without the proper infrastructure in place as well as the lack of good governance. Below is a summary of the things I have researched on the reading, which I hope the class will be able to see and perhaps ponder on where one stands on this issue.

Goal 1: eradicate hunger and poverty
Ethiopia opened its first commodities exchange in Addis Ababa in 2008, ostensibly to allow farmers to have more control in prices, more knowledge in prices, so that they can plan when to grow which crop to maximize profits. Currently half of the harvest is lost through decay in warehouses because there is no market for the produce or because there is oversupply leading to prices that the farmers can’t even make a profit from. But the exchange is not effective because of corruption and bureaucracy, and now the commodities exchange is merely a place for coffee prices.

Goal 2: provide e-learning. Is it feasible? Lack of infrastructure even for mobile phones in some countries, much less internet infrastructure. Most expensive place to access the internet: Central African Republic, where it costs 3891% of annual income. No wonder less than 0.1% of the population uses the internet. Change is not going to happen overnight. $100 laptops, good governance is crucial to the success of the program. Infrastructure must be in place. Perhaps there can be a leapfrog of technology infrastructure that can be put into place, such that there is satellite infrastructure instead of local infrastructure, since it is excessively costly to put in place land infrastructure over the vast African continent. Instead, these countries can rely on existing satellite bandwidth to broadcast broadband coverage.

Personal Ratings
I would rate the lesson a 9.3/10 because of the lively debate over methods that can be employed to tackle poverty and raise rural levels of primary education, which I personally have an interest in.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Individual Topical Review Paper Outline

Lin Liye G14
Individual Topical Review Paper Outline
Social Networking and its evolution

Specific Innovation of Interest
This paper aims to discuss on the issue of social networking and its evolution with a focus on the world’s largest social network, Facebook (FB), as well as the multilateral ways in which this innovation has changed the world, culturally, socially, politically as well as commercially. Facebook, a social network originally intended for students in Harvard to get together, has expanded its reach worldwide, reaching 750 million users as of July 2011, and has already cannibalized other online social networking websites such as MySpace and Friendster to become the single most dominant player in the market.

Rationale for Selecting this Innovation
Facebook has already affected and changed the world culturally, politically, commercially and socially. One political example will be the recent upheavals experienced in the Arab world. Online social networks, most notably Facebook, had been utilized by the population to organize protests and as a portal for the population to show their support for the supporters and voice their unhappiness about the incumbent regimes. Through these events, Facebook has demonstrated its potential as a tool to assemble a large crowd in short notice, and this has many repercussions. One possible political repercussion is that autocratic governments will find it harder to crack down on dissent, and this brings the question as to whether Facebook will actually be an agent of democracy. The future of Facebook is indeed fascinating, the scale of which is beyond anything seen before in history. If Facebook is a country, it will be the third-largest in the world, which begs the question, whether it will one day be as powerful as governments or as influential in the political arena. Etiquette in online social networks has become very important, because everything that is uploaded to the network remains there for posterity. Misplaced remarks about a particular superior at work may even cost users their jobs. In the future, will online social etiquette be a compulsory course for students in primary schools to complete?


Proposed Approach to Development of Paper
Executive Summary
The executive summary will only be written after the entire paper is completed.
Background/Introduction

The mobility of online social networks e.g. Facebook means that users can access them everywhere with the appropriate device and network, which they can then use to broadcast to the whole world anything within their fancy. This is in accordance with Web 2.0, where instead of downloading information from the Internet, the trend now is to upload information.



Historical Perspective

The recent history of social networking started from the pre-industrial age of courier mail to the snail mail, or nationalized post office system we are accustomed to. Following that, we have the telephone, to the fax machine. Fast forward to the Internet age where we have the email, to possibly the first widely-used online forums, IRC, to MSN Messenger to Friendster and finally to Facebook. The focus here is on the speed at which the other party can access the information sent out, in which case has shrunk from days to seconds, as well as the effective audience which social networking has, from a single individual to as many as over a million ‘friends’ for the most popular pages.

Current Situation

Social – Privacy has become a very valuable asset. Pictures are laid bare on FB for all to see, whether from your own album or photos “tagged” by friends. Pictures in compromising positions or posts that knowingly or unknowingly insult people close to you can no longer simply be erased without a trace. Such materials can either impede career advancement or shame the person to such an extent that he or she may end up choosing suicide to end the embarrassment.

Cultural – The advent of such online social networks shows that the people of every race and country want to be part of it. Even when the Japanese and Chinese have low levels of participation in Facebook, they have their own versions as well, albeit mostly catered and limited to the local population.

Politically – Examples include the Arab Spring and the Chinese Jasmine Revolution. These social networks allow huge numbers of people to be mobilized in a very short time, when a single message can be seen by tens of thousands of people as a post on their ‘live feeds’. This allows discussions to take place for all to view and take part in, potentially allowing demagogues to take over the discussions.

Commercially – Online display advertising revenue for FB has risen past Yahoo in the first six months and is projected to claim no. 1 spot in USA in 2011. Google is third. Companies now vie for attention in an ever more fickle consumer who is constantly distracted by advertisements on all platforms, online or offline. Beyond that, companies have also used Facebook as a medium to raise public awareness of their products and events through display advertising, pages, profiles or events. Companies have pages of their products/shops where people can ‘like’ their pages, where they post the latest products and offers. An example will be the 2011 Bondue camp held in SMU, where camp participants had to make their way to the sponsor’s shop in PoMo to like their Facebook page as part of a sponsorship deal.

Future Considerations

Political
• Will Facebook inevitably be an agent of democracy?
• Will FB evolve to be as powerful as states and governments?
Socially
• Will all services online be eventually integrated into a single portal under Facebook? Currently, Facebook users are able to log into other online forums via FB.
• With heightened privacy settings, will governmental services and records such as medical information and property prices be allowed to be accessible through Facebook?
• With online social networking taking on an increasingly central role in our lives, there could arise in the future compulsory primary school classes on social etiquette on online networking sites.
Culturally
• As more people get more connected on FB, there is an increase in exposure to people from different countries and regions. Will there a similar rise in cultural assimilation or understanding, and will there be a Facebook effect, not unlike the McDonald’s effect espoused by Thomas Friedman, which states that two countries with the McDonald’s franchise operating within them has never been to war with each other i.e. the risk of war between two states is inversely proportional to the percentage of registered users in the countries compared to the entire population within the countries.
Conclusions

Research is still ongoing.

References

References will include print and non-print resources.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

4th seminar 6/7/11

We started off the lesson with the topic on drivers of world change. I found the tongue-in-cheek quote from George Bernard Shaw rather true, that ‘the reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.’ The average person will not be as creative or forceful and he will be more willing to conform to the norms and limits set by society, whereas the true geniuses of the world will constantly think about ways to improve on what they have now, because they are always unsatisfied with status quo and believe they have not reached perfection yet.


The second quote from Oliver Wendell Holmes, that “man’s mind, once stretched to a new idea, never goes back to its original dimensions.” is relevant because whenever man has discovered a new way of doing things, it is very hard to revert back to old form and continue to do things as before. More often than not, the new way of doing things is more efficient, more refreshing and is a welcome break from years of stagnation.

There are different kinds of change though, namely commercial, ideological and cultural, among others. When companies face stiff competition in the market, they are forced to be more innovative in both marketing their products as well as to change their products to suit the consumers’ needs. This is an example of commercial change.

Prof Shahi mentioned in class that competition may accelerate change. One prominent example would be the space race during the cold war. Without fierce competition from the Russians, which forced the government to devote more resources to developing new technology and also imbued a sense of urgency in succeeding before the Russians, the Americans would most likely not have landed on the moon.

Another key concept that we discussed in class was about the characteristics of the change, whether it is evolutionary or indeed revolutionary. Evolutionary change is more of a gradual change that proceeds in small increments over the years. An example will be the evolution of the car after the Model T came into production. Since then, gradual increments in safety, speed and comfort are recorded, but essentially, the functions of a car remain the same. Revolutionary change comes about when an organization or a person leapfrogged over the existing competition and do things that no one else has thought of as possible. One example is the iPhone, which revolutionized the way we perceive smartphones, how they should look like and the functions that they have. No one thought smartphones could look sleek and cool because a ‘qwerty’ keyboard was supposed to be ‘essential’ in its design. The iPhone has changed the way we define phones, from a gadget that makes phone calls, to a mobile computer that just happens to be able to make phone calls as well. Unfortunately, revolutionary changes creates business opportunities in one arena and closes the market in another. One example will be Nokia, which was once the world’s largest phone-maker but has since faltered because it has failed to realize that smartphones will cannibalize the sales of phones with basic functions.

Crossing the chasm
Prof Shahi also mentioned about the bell curve about different kinds of people that adopt existing technology in different stages. The innovators, tech enthusiasts, early adopters and visionaries will form the first major subgroup and will be on the left side of the bell curve.
There is a chasm in between the two major subgroups, which represents a time lag as well as a gap in the risk-taking factor, because the group on the right side will want the right infrastructure to exist before stepping in to adopt the new technology, whereas the group on the left will want to be the first to try the new technology and will actively give in feedback on the technology by using the beta versions of those technology.

Prof Shahi also mentioned that there are 3 types of people in this world: those who make things happen, those who see things happen and those who have no clue as to what is happening. LOL

One memorable reading was the ‘herding cats’ title. The author describes the modern-age employee as a cat, as someone who is not willing to just follow orders. They will only follow if there are benefits to them, or if they believe in the cause that you have propagated. Just as it is hard to convince cats to group together as a herd and follow the master, it is hard to convince modern-age employees to follow you in a cause, unless you change the way you manage people. Management in this age can no longer effectively use the top-down management approach that is directive in nature, but they must use a more supportive role in management where formal authority is weaker. Using the
Rising star/falling star approach, companies that are more adaptable and open to ideas and change will be the rising stars, whereas the companies that fail to keep up with times and insist on doing things that is incompatible with the times will be the falling stars.

All in all, I will rate the lesson a 9/10 because I have gained a lot in terms of perspective as well as the way I view change. I would like to thank Prof Shahi for such an entertaining lesson.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

3rd lesson

We watched a video at the start of the lesson on the sustainability of our lifestyles and the consequent impact on Earth. The presenter talked about using a linear system of using resources on a finite planet instead of a closed-loop system where spent resources are converted back to consumer products, and how it was unsustainable because resources were finite.

Photobucket

The United States have 5% of the population but use 30% of resources. At this rate, we would need 5 earths if everyone consumes at the same rate as the US.

Currently, out of the 100 largest organizations, there are 49 countries and 51 companies. This phenomenon means that companies, especially MNCs, are more and more powerful politically and have more sway over politicians and policy-making. One risk is that if politicians threaten to slap entire industries with stricter environmental controls, these companies may threaten to stop operations in that country altogether and shift to another country with looser regulations to continue operations.

Photobucket

Currently, there are over 100,000 synthetic chemicals in commercial and industrial usage, yet only a handful has been tested. We do not know the long-term effects of almost all the chemicals that we have contact with daily, or whether those chemicals have a poisoning effect on humans. With the rapid advance in technological improvements, regulation is failing to catch up.

I disagree with some of the views of the video. People move to cities because they want to be part of the vibrancy, to find more opportunities that they will never have in the villages. If they can have similar income levels or material comfort in the rural areas, they will not choose to migrate to the cities and live in slums. They move to the cities because they believe that their standards of living will rise, not fall.
Companies are able to produce goods at low prices not because they are oppressing the workers but because companies reap economies of scale and outsource output to places with lower labor costs. Similarly, workers in the third-world countries will not be willing to work in the ‘sweatshops’ if they can find better opportunities, which unfortunately do not exist. The factories of MNCs are not only often better equipped and provide workers with better welfare than local factories, they also have higher standards of safety.

The video trivializes computer advances as well. The presenter said “a small part of the computer” is all that continually improves and because it doesn’t fit into the older computers, you have to throw away everything and buy a new one altogether. She discounted technological advances in other components of the computer such as hard disk, RAM, a bigger power supply for all the new components etc. Computer parts also do not “change in shape” so often, and the reason why they change is because engineers have discovered a better or more efficient way of arranging components in the computer.

I find her extremely hypocritical because she is probably part of the same consumer generation that uses up resources and generates lots of waste.

She over-generalizes that everyone in America wakes up to shop, then to work to pay for the shopping, then go back home and wake TV and be convinced by the advertising to buy more products and work more to pay for it etc. Obviously not everyone will be like that, because not everyone is so materialistic.

After the video screening, Prof Shahi said that all industries today are based on fossil fuels that are non-renewable resources. It is well-known that global economic growth picked up during the Industrial Revolution, but mining of natural resources, of coal, oil, metals etc. began its exponential growth during that period as well. Prof also mentioned that energy intensity generates wealth in this society, which I believe is true, because energy intensity is proportional to productivity gains which is the underlying factor in economics growth.

In the end, however, we have to learn how to Balance economic well-being and environmental well-being, and it is an issue that as students and young adults, we have to consider really carefully, for the sake of future generations and the future of the Earth.

After that, we discussed the Shahi landscape model for technology assessment, about the valley, summit and cloud opportunities. I think it is a really good and succinct chart to map out the route that most start-ups take. For new start-ups, to earn big bucks, they have to choose the summit path, where the product is proven to be well-received by the market and there is a large demand for it. For risk-takers, however, they will choose the cloud route, where ideas are not proven and it is not known whether the market will be receptive to those ideas yet. Sometimes, it is the product that creates the market. Sometimes it’s the other way round.

In summary:
Should innovation be Market driven? Summit scenario, where u make big money
Should innovation be technology driven? Cloud scenario, unknown outcome.